| Recent Posts | About the Author | Navigation |
|---|---|---|
|
|
David is an occasional blogger, software engineer, Nintendo fanboy, liberal, news magazine addict, voracious TiVo user, and bibliophile. He was born in St. Louis, grew up in southern Indiana, and returned to St. Louis to attend Washington University. He hasn't managed to escape yet. He's a fan of free wine tastings, too many tv shows to name, and eating out. David makes his living developing web applications used internally by his employer. He doesn't blog about work because he's heard too many stories about that causing workplace troubles. There's more on the about page. |
|
| Recent Comments | ||
|
|
||
| Recent Photos | ||
|
|
||
7 November 2006 - 2:05 pm
Okay, time for some prognosticating. Before I spoil myself by reading exit poll data and hashing things out with those who know more about this than me, here are my 2006 election predictions. The categories are a bit scatter-shot, but this is what you get.
US Senate
I spent a lot of time playing around with the NY Times election guide and here is my take on how things will play out. Virginia will go blue. Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana will go red. The rest go the way everyone expects things to. This leaves the Senate split with 51 GOP Senators and 49 Democratic ones. Here's what my map looks like.
US House of Representatives
I used the election map at NPR to gain some insight into the key House Races and then used the NY Times election map to create my scenario. In the end, I think the House will go blue with 222 Democratic members and 213 Republicans. Here's what my map looks like.
Gubernatorial Races
Republicans lose eight of their 28 states (Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Colorado, and Arkansas), giving control of 30 governor's mansions to the Democrats. Here's what my map looks like.
Indiana 8th (see map)
I'll be taking my first celebratory drink of the night when crazy John Hostettler loses to Brad Ellsworth. And if you aren't familiar with why I'm no Hostettler fan, make sure you read the controversy section of the wikipedia entry I linked to above.
MO Senate
As I alluded to above, I think Missouri will probably go red. I hope I'm wrong here, but that's the feeling I'm getting right now. I'm also worried about how the fallout from this race will effect the MO ballot initiatives.
MO Ballot initiatives
The results are hardest to predict in this category because of the dearth of useful polling on the subject, but here's my prediction.
- Stem cell initiative: The poll I saw showed Missourians strongly supporting this initiative. But I'm concerned that a big right-wing turn out could adversely effect things. It's a tossup, but I'll go with the poll and predict that the measure will pass.
- Smoking tax: I have no idea how people will vote on this, but I"m predicting that this passes.
- Withholding pensions from felons: Pass.
- Minimum wage increase: Pass.
Agree or disagree? Let me know through the comments. And don't forget to vote today.
Posted by on 7 November 2006 at 2:04 PM
Comments