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Jason Isringhausen blew another save last night. That's his fourth blown save this year, which equals his total for all of last year. I've been down on Jason all year, but his supporters keep telling me that I shouldn't look at individual performance but should instead look at his statistics to get a feel for how he's doing. He is tied for second in the majors with 18 saves, after all. So let's do that. Let's take a closer look at Jason Isringhausen's statistics.

Total saves alone are not a particularly useful statistic because of the varying number of save opportunities each closer in the major has had. Save opportunities vary from team to team and, because they exist before a closer is brought into a game, are not correlated to a closer's performance. However, we can account for that pretty easily simply by factoring out save opportunities and analyzing the percentage of save opportunities that are converted to saves.

The following table gives the statistics for every major league pitcher with at least ten save opportunities. There are two rank columns, one for the classic statistics of total number of saves and one for the percentage of save opportunities converted to saves, as well as a few other useful numbers.

As you can see, while Jason Isringhausen looks to be an elite closer in terms of his save total this year, he is a middle of the pack guy at best in terms of the percentage of save opportunities converted this year. In fact, it looks more and more like Jason Isringhausen's statistically successful year, as his supporters call it, is a by-product more of the save opportunities he's had than the saves he's completed.

Posted by on 6 June 2006 at 8:39 AM

You are right to be doubtful of Isrinhausen's performance based on saves alone, but even save percentage can be skewed if, for instance, a pitcher gets into a lot of 3-run-lead games where he could give up 2 runs and still get a save.

Better statistics to measure a pitcher's value are strikeout to walk ratio and WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched). These do a better job of measuring only the pitcher himself and not the situations they're in.

These stats paint a bleaker picture of Izzy's season. His strikeout to walk ratio is 0.91, which means he actually walks more hitters than he strikes out. This is almost unheard of for a closer. His WHIP also leaves something to be desired at 1.78, which ranks him 259th in the majors amongst all pitchers who have thrown at least 1 inning of relief. This means as a pitcher he's been more comparable to Royals closer Ambiorix Burgos (1.76 WHIP, although a much better K/BB ratio) than to Jonathan Papelbon (who has only 2 more saves than Izzy but a WHIP of less than 0.5).

On average, Jason is allowing almost 2 baserunners per outing. Not many 1-2-3 innings there.

Posted by Chris Hill Festival on 7 June 2006 - 7:55 AM

Good points, Chris.

The P-D ran an article yesterday detailing all of Jason's less-than-stellar performances. It makes for interesting reading, so I thought I'd copy the relevant portions up here before it gets delted from their servers. It doesn't paint a pretty picture of Jason as a dominating closer.

May 12, 5-3 victory over Arizona: He entered the game to start the ninth inning with a 5-2 lead over the Diamondbacks. He immediately walked first baseman Conor Jackson. After whiffing Shawn Green and Orlando Hudson, he allowed Johnny Estrada to stroke an RBI single. Then pinch-hitter Tony Clark grounded out to end the game.

May 18, 6-3 victory over the Mets: He entered the game to start the ninth inning with a three-run lead. After getting Carlos Delgado to foul out, Isringhausen walked David Wright and served up a double to Cliff Floyd. But he stranded runners at second and third by getting Ramon Castro on a shallow fly ball and Endy Chavez on a tapper back to the mound.

May 20, 4-2 victory over the Royals: He entered the game to start the ninth inning with a two-run lead and walked leadoff hitter Emil Brown. Fortunately, he got Tony Graffanino to ground into a double play and then he fanned Paul Bako to end the game.

May 23, 8-5 victory over the Giants: He entered the game with runners at first and third and one out in the ninth inning, with the Cards leading 8-4. He immediately walked Pedro Feliz to load the bases. He walked old friend Mike Matheny to force in a run. With the winning run now at the plate, he got Todd Greene to fly out and Kevin Frandsen to hit a game-inning grounder.

May 27, 4-3 victory over the Padres: He entered the game to start the ninth inning with the one-run lead. Isringhausen got Mike Piazza to hit a grounder back to him, then he fanned Dave Roberts. Then Mike Cameron singled and Brian Giles drew a walk to put the winning run on base. But Yadier Molina got Izzy out of the jam by picking Giles off first base with a brilliant play.

May 29, 3-1 victory over the Astros: He entered the game to start the ninth inning with a two-run lead. He immediately allowed a Chris Burke single, bringing the tying run to the plate. But he retired Brad Ausmus (fouled out to catcher), Adam Everett (grounded out to first) and Jason Lane (struck out swinging) to bank the save.

May 31, 4-3 victory over the Astros: With the game tied 3-3, Isringhausen entered the game to start the ninth inning in a non-save situation. Immediately he allowed Eric Bruntlett to slash a single into left field. Jason Lane advanced the winning run into scoring position with a bunt. But Izzy caught Willy Taveras looking at a third strike and Eric Munson flied out to center to end the threat.

Isringhausen stayed on to pitch the 10th inning, too. He struck out Lance Berkman and got Morgan Ensberg to foul out to first before walking Mike Lamb. Then he fanned Chris Burke, allowing the next Cardinal pitcher, Braden Looper, to win after the Cards finally scored the winning run in the bottom of the 11th inning.

June 2, 5-4 loss to the Cubs: The Cards led 4-2 heading into the ninth. Isringhausen started the inning and immediately allowed Freddie Bynum to single to center. The tying run advanced to second on Juan Pierre’s groundout. Then Izzy walked Phil Nevin and Michael Barrett to load the bases with one out. Todd Walker hit what should have been a double-play grounder right at third baseman Scott Rolen -– who let the ball scoot through his legs for a two-run error.

Isringhausen spared the Cards further damage by coaxing a grounder from Aramis Ramirez and by striking out Jacques Jones. But the game moved into extra innings and the Cards lost in the 14th.

June 4, 9-6 victory the Cubs: Given a comfy three-run lead to start the ninth, Isringhausen walked the leadoff hitter, Jones, before getting Matt Murton to ground out, Ronny Cedeno to ground out and Phil Nevin to foul out.

Posted by david on 7 June 2006 - 8:48 AM